By Alex Rivera, World Affairs Correspondent
America News World
September 23, 2025
In the gilded halls of Riyadh’s royal palace, a handshake last week between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has sent shockwaves through New Delhi. The signing of a “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” – a pact that treats any attack on one nation as an assault on both – has deepened India’s unease over its volatile neighbor, especially amid lingering tensions from a brief but bloody border clash earlier this year. For the United States, with its intricate web of alliances in the Gulf and South Asia, the deal raises questions about shifting power dynamics and the specter of nuclear proliferation in an already volatile region.
The agreement, inked on September 17, 2025, formalizes decades of shadowy military ties between the two Muslim powerhouses. Pakistan, the world’s only nuclear-armed Islamic nation, brings its arsenal of over 100 warheads and a battle-hardened army of 600,000 troops to the table. Saudi Arabia, flush with oil wealth and ambitious under the Crown Prince’s Vision 2030 reforms, offers financial lifelines to Islamabad, which teeters on economic collapse with debts exceeding $130 billion. A senior Saudi official described the pact to Reuters as an “institutionalization of long-standing and deep cooperation,” emphasizing its defensive nature without specifying if it extends to nuclear sharing. 0 Yet, the ambiguity fuels speculation: Does Riyadh now have a de facto nuclear umbrella from its cash-strapped ally?
From India’s vantage point, the timing couldn’t be worse. Just five months after a four-day skirmish in April 2025 – sparked by a terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 27 Indian paramilitary personnel – the pact feels like a direct provocation. 0 That conflict, which saw cross-border artillery exchanges and airstrikes, ended in a fragile ceasefire brokered by U.S. diplomats. Now, with Pakistan anchored to patrons like China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia – all of whom supplied arms during the flare-up – Indian strategists fear encirclement. “This pact checkmates India,” says Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Wilson Center. “It doesn’t directly hinder New Delhi, but it bolsters Pakistan’s deterrence and signals Riyadh’s willingness to back Islamabad militarily.” 0
Indian analysts are blunt in their alarm. Brahma Chellaney, a prominent strategist, posted on X: “Riyadh knew India would construe the Saudi-Pakistan pact as a direct threat to its security, yet it went ahead.” He argues the move underscores Saudi ambitions, binding a “chronically dependent” Pakistan for manpower and nuclear “insurance” while flexing independence from Washington. 0 Former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal echoed this, calling it a “grave misstep” that could jeopardize India’s security, given Pakistan’s instability. 0 Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif amplified the rhetoric, telling reporters in Islamabad that Saudi forces would rush to Pakistan’s aid if India launched an attack, framing the deal as a “NATO-like” defensive shield. 1
New Delhi’s official response has been measured but pointed. Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal stated that India is “studying the implications for national security and regional stability,” while expressing hope that the Saudi-Indian “strategic partnership” – encompassing $50 billion in annual trade and massive oil imports – would “keep in mind mutual interests and sensitivities.” 2 India, Saudi Arabia’s second-largest trading partner, has cultivated deep ties with Riyadh since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2016 visit, including joint military exercises and a $100 billion investment pledge. Yet, the pact risks straining this rapport, potentially complicating India’s “Look West” policy for Gulf energy and diaspora remittances.
Not all see doomsday. Some experts downplay the threat, viewing the agreement as posturing aimed more at Israel and Iran than India. “It’s the formalization of a 1960s understanding,” argues Md. Muddassir Quamar of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Centre for West Asian Studies. Historical precedents abound: Pakistani troops bolstered Saudi defenses in the 1960s, commandos quashed the 1979 Grand Mosque siege in Mecca, and Riyadh has long funded Islamabad’s military, including deferred oil payments during crises like the 1971 war with India. 0 Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador now at the Hudson Institute, warns it could echo Cold War-era U.S. support for Pakistan against India – but only if definitions of “aggression” align between Riyadh and Islamabad. 0
For Saudi Arabia, the pact signals a pivot from U.S. reliance. Recent events – including Israel’s August 2025 airstrike on a Qatari airbase that rattled Gulf capitals – have eroded faith in Washington’s security umbrella, amid Riyadh’s feud with Tehran and stalled normalization with Jerusalem. 3 “It’s designed to convey that Saudi Arabia is diversifying partnerships without ditching the U.S.,” says Ahmed Aboudouh of Chatham House. The deal enhances deterrence against Iran and Israel, leveraging Pakistan’s nukes – long rumored to be partially Saudi-funded – as an “emergency” option. 5 A senior Saudi source insisted to Reuters it’s not targeted at any specific foe. 4
The broader geopolitical ripples extend to U.S. interests. The pact could fuel the U.S.-China rivalry, as Beijing – Pakistan’s top arms supplier and “iron brother” – gains indirect leverage in the Gulf. 6 It also jeopardizes the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a U.S.-backed trade route rivaling China’s Belt and Road, by sowing distrust in Gulf-Indian ties. 6 Geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer told India Today that the deal “will change life for India,” forcing New Delhi to recalibrate amid potential Saudi intervention in future Indo-Pak clashes. 5 For Washington, balancing support for Israel, countering Iran, and maintaining Gulf stability just got trickier.
Critics like Aboudouh envision an “Islamic NATO” emerging, complicating Delhi’s strategies and empowering a Pakistan-backed coalition of Muslim states. 0 Kugelman adds that while India boasts alliances with Russia, Israel, France, and Gulf states, the pact tilts the scales toward Islamabad’s “growing strengths” rather than New Delhi’s vulnerabilities. 0 Still, operational details remain foggy – from nuclear protocols to joint command structures – leaving room for diplomatic maneuvering.
As Modi prepares for the upcoming BRICS summit, eyes in Washington and New Delhi will track Riyadh’s next moves. The pact may not ignite immediate conflict, but it redraws fault lines, reminding all that in South Asia’s nuclear tinderbox, old friendships can quickly turn into new threats. For now, India watches warily, hoping economic bonds with Saudi Arabia prove stronger than battlefield pledges
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