Nitish Kumar to take oath as Bihar CM at Gandhi Maidan today; Modi, Shah to attend: 10 points

By_shalini oraon

, expanding on the event’s context, significance, and implications.

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A Grand Overture in Patna: Nitish Kumar’s Swearing-In Cements BJP’s Bihar Gambit

The sprawling Gandhi Maidan in Patna, a historic witness to countless political rallies and public spectacles, is set to become the stage for one of the most significant political events in recent Bihar history. On Sunday, [Insert Date], Nitish Kumar will take oath as the Chief Minister of Bihar for a record-equalling ninth time, an event whose symbolism is amplified by the confirmed attendance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. This is not merely a swearing-in ceremony; it is a meticulously choreographed political statement, marking the full and formal return of the Janata Dal (United) to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold and setting the tone for the upcoming 2024 General Elections.

Here are the key points that unravel the layers of this pivotal moment:

1. The Venue: Gandhi Maidan as a Symbol of Grandeur
The choice of Gandhi Maidan,as opposed to the Raj Bhavan, is deliberate and loaded with meaning. It is a move to project this not as a routine government formation but as a massive public celebration and a show of strength. The BJP-NDA machinery is pulling out all the stops to ensure a monumental gathering, aiming to broadcast a message of unity, popular support, and renewed vigour to the entire nation. The imagery of a sea of supporters cheering for Nitish Kumar, with Modi and Shah on the same stage, is intended to erase the memory of his tumultuous exit from the NDA in 2022.

2. The Protagonist: Nitish Kumar, The Ultimate Survivor
Nitish Kumar’s political career is a masterclass in realpolitik and survival.His latest flip, ditching the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) with the RJD and Congress, has once again earned him the epithet of ‘Paltu Ram’ (the one who turns). Yet, his enduring relevance cannot be dismissed. As the architect of Bihar’s law-and-order turnaround and a leader with a significant support base among the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and a section of women voters, he remains a prized asset for any coalition. This ninth oath is a testament to his uncanny ability to position himself as the indispensable center of Bihar’s politics.

3. The Star Attendees: Modi and Shah’s Seal of Approval
The presence of PM Modi and HM Amit Shah is the most potent symbol of this alliance’s renewed strength.Their attendance is not a mere formality; it is a strategic investment. By sharing the stage with Nitish, they are signalling to the BJP’s rank and file, who may be resentful of his return, that the partnership is non-negotiable. For the national audience, it projects an image of a united NDA, seamlessly integrating a powerful regional satrap back into its fold, thus strengthening the BJP’s narrative of a stable and expansive pre-poll coalition for 2024.

4. The Impetus: Why the Flip Now?
The collapse of the Mahagathbandhan was precipitated by multiple factors.Internally, Nitish Kumar was increasingly chafing under the perceived pressure from the RJD, particularly the corruption allegations against Lalu Prasad Yadav’s family. The RJD’s larger number of MLAs also created a power dynamic where Nitish felt his authority was being undermined. Externally, the BJP, smarting from its 2022 defeat, saw an opportunity to break the opposition’s unity and woo him back with the promise of a respectable share of seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The impending national elections made the timing critical for both parties.

5. The New Alliance Arithmetic: A Formidable Combination
The NDA in Bihar now comprises the BJP,JD(U), and other smaller allies like HAM(S) and VIP. This combination is electorally formidable. It consolidates the votes of the upper castes (BJP’s core), a large section of the EBCs and Mahadalits (Nitish’s base), and other non-Yadav OBC groups. This social coalition has historically been a winning formula in Bihar, as demonstrated in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2020 state assembly polls before Nitish’s exit.

6. The Opposition’s Predicament: A Shattered Dream
For the Opposition,particularly the RJD and the Congress, this is a body blow. The Mahagathbandhan, which also included the Left parties, was seen as a template for opposition unity at the national level under the INDIA bloc. Nitish Kumar, in fact, had been a convener of the INDIA alliance. His return to the NDA has not only shattered the opposition in Bihar but has also caused a major crisis of credibility for the INDIA bloc nationally. It leaves the RJD-led alliance heavily reliant on its Muslim-Yadav (MY) combination, which has proven insufficient in the past against a united NDA.

7. The Seat-Sharing Dynamics: The Unspoken Agreement
While the official seat-sharing formula for the 2024 polls will be negotiated later,the broad understanding is that the BJP and JD(U) will contest an equal number of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats, leaving a few for smaller allies. Nitish’s return is predicated on this equitable distribution, a lesson from the past when perceived slights in seat-sharing led to his departure. This delicate balance will be the key to the alliance’s harmony in the coming months.

8. The Deputy CMs: A Balancing Act
In a move to ensure caste balance and representation within the NDA,two Deputy Chief Ministers have been appointed: Vijay Kumar Sinha (BJP), a prominent upper-caste leader, and Samrat Choudhary (BJP), a firebrand OBC leader from the Kushwaha community. This structure appeases different social groups within the coalition and also allows the BJP to have its key leaders in powerful positions within the government, acting as a check and balance on Nitish Kumar.

9. The Governance Agenda: “Sushasan” vs. “Jungle Raj”
The NDA’s immediate political narrative will be a return to Nitish Kumar’s hallmark“sushasan” (good governance), juxtaposed against the alleged “jungle raj” of the RJD. Expect a strong emphasis on law and order, infrastructure development, and welfare schemes for women and underprivileged sections. This narrative will be aggressively pushed to justify the political switch and convince the electorate that stability has been restored.

10. The 2024 Prelude: Bihar as a Bellwether State
Ultimately,the events in Patna today are a massive opening gambit for the 2024 General Elections. Bihar, with its 40 seats, is a crucial battleground. A united NDA, as seen in 2019, is capable of sweeping 30-40 seats, which significantly contributes to the BJP-led alliance’s national tally. The Gandhi Maidan oath-taking is, therefore, the first major rally of the NDA’s 2024 campaign, sending a clear message that in one of India’s most politically charged states, the ruling alliance at the Centre has consolidated its position decisively.

The oath at Gandhi Maidan is more than a constitutional formality; it is the dramatic first scene of Act III in the long-running political saga of Nitish Kumar and a pivotal prologue to the national election narrative. The stage is set, the key players are in position, and the political trajectory of one of India’s most important states has been irrevocably altered, once again.