By_Suraj Karowa/ANW ,November 6, 2025
BAMAKO, Mali
— The streets of Bamako, once alive with the hum of motorcycles and the chatter of markets, now echo with the frustration of fuel-starved queues and the flicker of sporadic power outages.
For months, the al-Qaeda-linked militant group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has encircled Mali’s capital in a calculated economic stranglehold, sealing off vital supply routes and plunging the city into chaos.
As residents ration gasoline and schools shutter indefinitely, experts warn that this unprecedented blockade signals JNIM’s audacious bid to topple the military regime — a move that could reshape the volatile Sahel region.
The siege began in September, when JNIM fighters ambushed and blocked major highways snaking from Senegal and Ivory Coast, the lifelines for fuel tankers feeding landlocked Mali.
What started as a response to Bamako’s July ban on informal fuel sales in rural areas — a policy aimed at starving militants of resources — has morphed into a full-scale crisis. Prices for scarce gasoline have skyrocketed over 400 percent, from $25 to $130 per liter, crippling transportation, inflating food costs and triggering blackouts that leave neighborhoods in darkness.
“This is the first time they’ve hit the capital like this,” said Beverly Ochieng, a Sahel analyst at Control Risks. “It’s not just about logistics; it’s psychological warfare, designed to erode public trust in the junta and force negotiations.
” Last week, the U.S. and U.K. urged citizens to flee and evacuated diplomats, while Western allies issued similar advisories. On October 7 and 30, government-escorted convoys of tankers breached the lines, but JNIM retaliated by torching around 200 vehicles in the south and west, as verified by social media videos showing highways ablaze.
At the heart of this turmoil is JNIM, the Sahel’s most potent jihadist force, forged in 2022 from a coalition of al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) and Malian factions like Ansar Dine and Al-Murabitun. Led by the enigmatic Iyad Ag Ghali, a Tuareg separatist turned Islamist hardliner, the group boasts an estimated 6,000 fighters, per Western intelligence.
Ghali, who once negotiated peace as a Malian diplomat in Saudi Arabia, pivoted to militancy after rebuffs in the 2012 Tuareg rebellion. His vision: expel Western “puppets” from Mali and impose sharia law, blending guerrilla raids with community aid to win hearts in marginalized ethnic enclaves.
JNIM’s tactics are as ruthless as they are strategic. In controlled rural swaths of northern, central and western Mali, it enforces dress codes, bans music and razes infrastructure like schools and bridges to hobble the state.
ACLED data logs 207 deaths from JNIM attacks in Mali from January to April alone, with thousands more since 2017. Human rights monitors accuse it of targeting civilians suspected of aiding the government.
Funding flows from gold mines in besieged Kayes (80% of Mali’s output), cattle rustling (yielding €91,400 in sales from 2017-2019), arms smuggling and foreigner kidnappings.
The blockade’s ripple effects are devastating.
Schools nationwide closed until November 9, stranding teachers amid commute woes. Abandoned cars clog petrol stations, prompting junta threats of impoundments for security reasons.
Driver Omar Sidibe, speaking to reporters amid a serpentine queue, vented: “The leaders must uncover the shortage’s root and act. This isn’t just fuel; it’s survival.” Frustration simmers, with calls for protests echoing the unrest that felled civilian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in 2020.
Analysts like Ulf Laessing of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung see JNIM’s handiwork as a masterstroke of asymmetric warfare. “They can’t seize Bamako militarily yet — urban defenses are too strong, and city dwellers lack rural grievances,” Laessing noted. “But by stoking anger, they’re priming the pump for upheaval, perhaps a power-sharing deal.”
JNIM’s communiqués demand regime change, harking back to Keita’s era of talks, which Colonel Assimi Goita’s 2020 coup leaders have shunned in favor of brute force.
Mali’s isolation exacerbates the peril. Goita’s junta expelled French troops in 2022 and the 10,000-strong UN mission in 2023, pivoting to Russian mercenaries.
Wagner’s 1,500 fighters, now rebranded as the 1,000-strong Africa Corps, recaptured northern Kidal from Tuareg rebels but faltered against JNIM. A July 2024 ambush near Tinzaouaten killed 20-80 Russians and 25-40 Malians — Wagner’s bloodiest rout in Africa.
Rights groups decry their abuses against suspected sympathizers, mirroring JNIM’s own atrocities.
The crisis tests Moscow’s mettle. Unverified Russian social media clips show Africa Corps jets shielding convoys, but Laessing doubts their risk appetite matches Wagner’s.
“If they break the siege, they’re saviors. If not, Mali’s army stays pinned down, ceding ground.” Early October hints of local mediations — greenlit by Bamako in Segou, Mopti and Timbuktu — yielded pacts for sieges to lift in exchange for JNIM’s taxes and non-cooperation with troops. Yet Goita’s AES alliance with Burkina Faso and Niger’s juntas prioritizes hardline defiance.
Beyond Mali, JNIM’s shadow lengthens. In Burkina Faso since 2017, it dominates 11 of 13 regions, besieging Djibo since 2022 and overrunning bases — 200 soldiers slain in May near there, 60 more in Solle. October saw Sabce fall temporarily, with 11 police dead. Human Rights Watch documented JNIM-ISIL massacres of aid convoys en route to Gorom Gorom.
Southward thrusts hit Ivory Coast’s Kafolo in 2020, Togo and Benin since 2022, and Nigeria’s border last month, killing a policeman in a porous, mineral-rich zone ripe for footholds.
As AES leaders — Goita, Niger’s Abdourahamane Tchiani and Burkina’s Ibrahim Traore — huddle in Niamey, the Sahel’s jihadist surge defies their vows.
ACLED charts JNIM attacks doubling post-2020 coups. With fuel dwindling and desperation mounting, Bamako teeters. Will the junta bend, or fracture? For Mali’s 23 million, the answer can’t come soon enough.
Discover more from AMERICA NEWS WORLD
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
