(L/R) Pierre Poilievre, Mark Carney, Jagmeet Singh, and Yves-Francois Blanchet
Liberals surge ahead of Conservatives in Canada’s 2025 election polls, with 43% support. Explore the latest trends and projections at AMERICA NEWS WORLD.
With Canada’s federal election set for April 28, 2025, the race between the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, and the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, is heating up. Polls show the Liberals holding a steady lead, but the Conservatives remain a strong contender. At AMERICA NEWS WORLD (ANW), we dive into the latest polling data, seat projections, and what’s driving voter sentiment. This article breaks down the numbers, highlights key trends, and explores why the Liberals are gaining ground. Let’s unpack where things stand in simple, everyday words.
The Liberal Party, in power since 2015, is riding a wave of support. According to the CBC Poll Tracker, 43% of Canadians would vote Liberal if the election happened today. Meanwhile, the Conservatives trail at 38%. Other parties, like the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8.3% and the Bloc Québécois at 5.4%, are struggling to keep up. For example, the NDP’s support has dropped sharply, and the Bloc, which only runs in Quebec, is losing ground too.
Why are the Liberals ahead? First, Mark Carney’s leadership has been a game-changer. After Justin Trudeau stepped down in January 2025, Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor, took over. His strong stance against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats has sparked a surge of Canadian pride. As a result, voters are rallying behind the Liberals. Additionally, the collapse of NDP and Bloc support has boosted the Liberals, especially in vote-rich areas like Ontario and Quebec.
However, the Conservatives aren’t out of the race. Pierre Poilievre’s populist message on housing and cost-of-living issues resonates with many, especially in Western Canada. Yet, Trump’s influence has hurt the Conservatives. Poilievre’s earlier lead, which lasted from mid-2023 to early 2025, has faded. Now, the Liberals are projected to win 196 seats, while the Conservatives might secure 122. A majority government requires 172 seats, giving the Liberals an 86% chance of winning big, compared to just 1% for the Conservatives.
Let’s look at the numbers. At the dissolution of Parliament, the Liberals held 153 seats, the Conservatives 120, the Bloc Québécois 33, and the NDP 24. Current projections show the Liberals gaining 43 seats, while the Conservatives might add just two. The NDP and Bloc could lose big, dropping to 5 and 19 seats, respectively. These shifts reflect a major realignment in voter preferences.
- Liberals: 196 seats (57%)
- Conservatives: 122 seats (36%)
- Bloc Québécois: 19 seats (6%)
- NDP: 5 seats (1%)
Moreover, regional trends tell a clear story. In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 10 points (48% vs. 38%). In Quebec, they’re ahead by 19 points (43% vs. 23% for the Bloc). Atlantic Canada is a Liberal stronghold, with 55% support. However, the Conservatives dominate in Alberta and hold a slight edge in British Columbia. These regional splits show why the Liberals are pulling ahead in seat-rich provinces.
What’s driving these changes? For one, Carney’s reputation as a steady hand in economic crises appeals to voters worried about Trump’s tariffs. In contrast, Poilievre’s populist style, while popular among older men, struggles with women and younger voters. Furthermore, the NDP’s decline has pushed progressive voters toward the Liberals, who are seen as the best bet to counter Trump’s threats.
But it’s not just about leaders. Issues like the economy, housing, and national identity are shaping the race. According to Nanos Research, 62% of voters say the cost of living is their top concern, followed by Trump’s tariffs at 42%. On these issues, Carney scores higher than Poilievre, especially on international affairs. Meanwhile, Poilievre leads on housing and crime but hasn’t closed the gap.
Table: Top Voter Issues and Preferred Party
(Source: Abacus Data, April 14-15, 2025)
| Issue | % of Voters | Preferred Party |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of Living | 62% | Conservatives |
| Trump/Tariffs | 42% | Liberals |
| Housing | 35% | Conservatives |
| Economy | 30% | Liberals |
Despite the Liberal lead, the race isn’t over. With advance voting underway and debates looming, Poilievre could still sway undecided voters. For instance, 56% of Canadians say it’s “time for a change,” per Abacus Data. If Poilievre capitalizes on this, he might narrow the gap. However, Carney’s favorability rating (+19) far outshines Poilievre’s (-6), giving the Liberals an edge.
Interestingly, voter turnout could be a wildcard. Unlike the quieter 2019 and 2021 elections, 2025 is seeing high engagement. Abacus Data reports 69% of Canadians are “very interested” in the campaign, up from 53% in 2021. This could boost turnout, especially for the Liberals, whose base is energized.
For more on global elections, check out this external report from The Guardian on Canada’s shifting political landscape. At AMERICA NEWS WORLD, we’re committed to bringing you the latest updates. Visit america112.com for more election coverage.
Why the Liberals Are Surging
Several factors explain the Liberal surge. First, Trudeau’s resignation removed a major liability. His unpopularity had dragged the Liberals to historic lows (16% in December 2024). Carney, a fresh face, has rebuilt trust. Second, Trump’s aggressive rhetoric—threatening 25% tariffs and joking about Canada as the “51st state”—has rallied Canadians around the Liberals. Finally, the NDP and Bloc’s collapse has consolidated progressive votes.
Conservative Challenges
The Conservatives face tough hurdles. Poilievre’s campaign, built on anti-Trudeau sentiment and carbon tax opposition, lost steam when Trudeau resigned, and the carbon tax was scrapped. Additionally, his populist style draws comparisons to Trump, which hurts in a climate of anti-Trump sentiment. While he leads among men aged 35-54, his support among women and younger voters lags.
What’s Next?
With the election just days away, debates and advance polls could shift momentum. The Liberals are favored, but a strong Poilievre performance might sway swing voters. Meanwhile, the NDP and Bloc are fighting to stay relevant. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, at 8.3%, risks losing official party status, while the Bloc’s Quebec-only strategy is faltering.
Canada’s elections are known for volatility. In 2011, the NDP surged to official opposition status, only to fade by 2021. The Conservatives, despite winning the popular vote in 2019 and 2021, struggled to secure seats due to their Western-heavy support. This election, however, feels different. Trump’s influence has made it “existential,” as former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien noted.
Graph: Polling Trends (January-April 2025)
(Source: Nanos Research, April 15-17, 2025)
- January 20: Conservatives 44.8%, Liberals 21.9%
- March 1: Conservatives 39%, Liberals 36%
- April 17: Liberals 45%, Conservatives 37%
Global Impact
This election matters beyond Canada. A Liberal majority could strengthen Canada’s stance in U.S. trade talks, while a Conservative win might align Canada closer to Trump’s policies. For readers in the U.S., India, and beyond, Canada’s choice will shape North American trade and geopolitics. At AMERICA NEWS WORLD, we’ll keep you posted on every twist and turn.