If war breaks out…’: Afghanistan’s big warning to Pakistan as peace talks fall flat again

By_shalini oraon

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‘If War Breaks Out…’: Afghanistan’s Stark Warning to Pakistan as Peace Talks Crumble

The fragile hope for detente between two of Asia’s most volatile neighbors appears to be shattering. In a dramatic escalation of rhetoric, senior officials from the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan have issued a stark warning to Pakistan, signaling that the complete breakdown of recent peace talks has brought the two nations to the brink of a conflict neither can afford. The chilling statement, “If war breaks out…”, hanging in the air without the need for a full conclusion, serves as the most explicit threat yet in a relationship rapidly deteriorating from uneasy alliance to open hostility.

This latest crisis is not a sudden rupture but the culmination of years of escalating tensions, with the failure of the latest round of talks in Islamabad acting as the final catalyst. The discussions, aimed at addressing cross-border terrorism, the contentious Durand Line, and the fate of militant sanctuaries, concluded not with a joint statement but with mutual recriminations and a palpable sense of finality.

The Unraveling of an Uneasy Alliance

The relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan has always been complex, characterized by a deep-seated mistrust that dates back to the creation of Pakistan in 1947. Afghanistan was the sole country to vote against Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations, disputing the legitimacy of the Durand Line—the 2,640-kilometer border drawn by British colonialist Sir Mortimer Durand in 1893 that divides the ethnic Pashtun and Baloch populations.

For decades, Pakistan’s military establishment viewed Afghanistan through the lens of “strategic depth”—a need for a friendly, pliable government in Kabul to counter its arch-rival, India. This policy led to Pakistan’s extensive support for the Taliban in the 1990s and its subsequent harboring of the group’s leadership after the 2001 U.S. invasion. However, the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 did not yield the puppet regime Islamabad expected. Instead, a more nationally assertive Taliban emerged, one unwilling to acquiesce to Pakistani demands, particularly the disarming and expulsion of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban.

The TTP: The Uninvited Guest Wrecking the Party

The TTP is the central, intractable issue fueling this crisis. For Pakistan, the TTP is an existential threat—a brutal militant group responsible for thousands of deaths over the years, including the horrific 2014 Peshawar school massacre. Islamabad insists that the Afghan Taliban government, which it championed for two decades, must now crack down on TTP militants who use Afghan territory as a safe haven to launch attacks into Pakistan.

Kabul’s response has been a consistent and infuriating refusal. The Afghan Taliban see the TTP not as terrorists but as “mujahideen” brothers, bound by ideological kinship, ethnic ties, and a shared history of struggle. They have repeatedly stated they will not attack them or hand them over, offering instead to mediate talks—a process that has failed repeatedly. From the Afghan perspective, Pakistan’s internal security problems are of its own making, a blowback from its own long-standing policy of nurturing jihadist proxies. The warning from Kabul is clear: we will not fight your battles for you.

Beyond the TTP: A Multifaceted Confrontation

While the TTP is the immediate flashpoint, the conflict is multilayered:

1. The Durand Line Dispute: The Taliban, like every Afghan government before them, do not recognize the Durand Line as an international border. Recent attempts by Pakistan to fence and fortify the border have been met with violent resistance from Afghan forces, who have dismantled fencing and engaged in cross-border skirmishes. For Afghanistan, this is a matter of national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
2. Forced Repatriation of Afghan Refugees: In a move widely condemned as a pressure tactic, Pakistan has initiated a massive, often brutal, deportation drive targeting the estimated 1.7 million undocumented Afghans living within its borders. Hundreds of thousands have already been forced back into an Afghanistan grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis, placing an immense strain on the Taliban administration and fueling public anger against Pakistan.
3. Economic and Diplomatic Strangulation: Pakistan has also leveraged its position as a key trade route for landlocked Afghanistan, repeatedly closing border crossings that are vital for the flow of goods. These blockades, often justified on security grounds, are seen in Kabul as economic warfare designed to force political concessions.

The Specter of War: Rhetoric or Reality?

The critical question is whether the warning, “If war breaks out…”, is a genuine prelude to conflict or merely the peak of coercive diplomacy. A full-scale, conventional war between the two impoverished, nuclear-armed nations seems improbable to most analysts. Pakistan’s military, while far more powerful, is stretched thin dealing with internal security threats and its eastern border with India. The Afghan Taliban’s military, though battle-hardened, lacks the air force, artillery, and organizational structure for a sustained conventional conflict.

However, the space for a devastating, protracted low-intensity conflict is wide open. This could manifest as:

· Increased cross-border shelling and sniper fire, which is already occurring with alarming frequency.
· Proxy warfare, with Pakistan potentially revitalizing anti-Taliban factions like the National Resistance Front (NRF) to pressure Kabul.
· A dramatic escalation in TTP attacks inside Pakistan, with tacit or direct support from elements within the Afghan Taliban, pushing Pakistan to launch limited ground incursions into Afghan territory.

Such a scenario would be catastrophic for both nations. It would destabilize the entire region, create a new wave of refugees, and provide a fertile ground for transnational terrorist groups like ISIS-K to thrive in the chaos.

The Regional and Global Stakes

The Afghanistan-Pakistan rift is not happening in a vacuum. Key global powers are watching with apprehension. China, with its massive investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), desperately needs regional stability and has been attempting to mediate, so far with little success. Russia and Iran, while historically wary of Pakistani influence, are also concerned about the spread of instability. The United States, having withdrawn from Afghanistan, has limited leverage but remains deeply concerned about the region becoming a renewed terrorist safe haven.

The failure of talks and the subsequent warning mark a tragic pivot. The two nations, bound by geography, faith, and history, appear to be on a collision course driven by irreconcilable positions and a legacy of mistrust. The phrase “If war breaks out…” is a loaded one. It is a threat, a prediction, and a plea all at once. It is the sound of a diplomatic door slamming shut, leaving only the ominous silence that precedes the first shots of a conflict everyone claims they do not want, but which both sides seem increasingly willing to risk.