Bihar sees highest ever turnout at 67.14% in final phase; exit polls predict NDA win

By _shalini oraon

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A Mandate Sealed: Bihar’s Record Turnout and the NDA’s Projected Victory

The final phase of any election is often a crescendo, a last act that can define the entire political narrative. In Bihar, the concluding chapter of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls was not just defining; it was historic. With a staggering 67.14% voter turnout, the highest ever recorded in a final phase for the state, Bihar has sent a powerful, unambiguous message. As the dust settles on the booths and the echo of campaigning fades, the subsequent exit polls, almost unanimously predicting a win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), suggest that this message is one of continuity and consolidation.

This record-breaking participation and its projected outcome are not isolated events. They are the culmination of a complex interplay of caste calculus, developmental politics, strategic alliances, and a charged national narrative. To understand the significance of this moment is to delve into the heart of Bihar’s political psyche.

Decoding the Record-Breaking Turnout: More Than Just Numbers

A voter turnout of 67.14% in the final phase, surpassing previous records, is a robust indicator of a deeply engaged and motivated electorate. In a state where political loyalties are fiercely contested, such a high percentage signifies several underlying currents:

1. High-Stakes Contests: The final phase often includes constituencies that are traditional bellwethers. A surge in voting suggests that the contests were perceived as critical, galvanizing both the core bases of the competing alliances—the NDA and the Opposition’s INDIA bloc—and the crucial floating voters. When every vote is seen as potentially decisive, people are more likely to brave the heat and long queues to make their voice heard.
2. Mobilization of Marginalized Sections: A high turnout frequently points to the successful mobilization of women, youth, and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). The NDA, in particular, has heavily invested in wooing these segments, with schemes and rhetoric aimed directly at their empowerment. The record numbers suggest that these efforts may have successfully translated into feet on the ground, moving from passive beneficiaries to active participants in the democratic process.
3. A Polarized, Yet Energized, Electorate: While a high turnout does not inherently favour one side, in the context of Bihar’s sharp political and social cleavages, it often reflects a polarized electorate where both sides are equally motivated. The intense campaign, filled with heated rhetoric from all quarters, seems to have had the effect of energizing the base rather than alienating it, pushing overall participation to a new peak.

The Exit Poll Verdict: Why the NDA Appears Poised for a Repeat

The exit polls, while not the final word, provide a data-driven snapshot of the electorate’s mood at the moment of casting the vote. Their overwhelming projection of an NDA victory in Bihar points to a few key strategic successes.

1. The Unshakeable ‘Gathbandhan’ (Alliance): The NDA’s success in Bihar has long been predicated on a formidable social coalition. The coming together of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) under Nitish Kumar, and other smaller parties like the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) is designed to consolidate a broad base of upper castes, a significant section of OBCs (including the powerful Kushwaha and Kurmi communities led by Nitish Kumar), and a major portion of the Dalit vote (especially the Paswan base rallied by Chirag Paswan). The exit polls suggest that this arithmetic, often fragile in Bihar’s fickle political landscape, has held firm. Nitish Kumar’s last-minute return to the NDA fold, a move criticized by opponents as opportunistic, appears to have been a masterstroke in consolidating this crucial vote bank.

2. The Modi Factor and the National Security Narrative: Even in state elections, the persona of Prime Minister Narendra Modi looms large. In a national poll, his influence is magnified. The BJP’s campaign, centered on Modi’s leadership, the government’s welfare schemes (like free rations and direct benefit transfers), and a strong nationalist narrative around national security and “Hindutva,” has a significant pull. For many, a vote for the NDA is a vote for a perceived strong, stable central government, an appeal that often transcends local grievances and caste identities.

3. The Divided Opposition: The INDIA bloc, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties, entered the fray with a formidable social base of its own, primarily the Yadav-Muslim combine and sections of other OBCs. However, the exit poll projections indicate potential shortcomings. The alliance seemed plagued by a lack of a cohesive, positive narrative beyond criticizing the incumbent. The RJD’s campaign, heavily reliant on its traditional “MY” (Muslim-Yadav) equation, may have found it challenging to expand its appeal beyond this core. Furthermore, the absence of a single, towering leader to counter Modi’s appeal, coupled with internal friction and a less-than-optimized seat-sharing arrangement, likely hampered their ability to present a united and compelling alternative.

Beyond the Horse Race: The Message from the Heartland

The twin signals of historic turnout and a projected NDA victory carry profound implications for Bihar and the nation.

For Bihar, it suggests a potential endorsement of the politics of “Sushasan” (good governance) that Nitish Kumar once championed, now repackaged within the NDA framework. It indicates that the electorate may be rewarding the delivery of central schemes and a promise of stability over the more populist, but often chaotic, legacy of the RJD.

For the nation, Bihar’s result, if it holds on counting day, is a massive psychological and political victory for the BJP-led NDA. Securing a lion’s share of the 40 seats from this key Hindi-heartland state is indispensable for the alliance’s mission to cross the 272-mark in the Lok Sabha. It demonstrates the enduring power of a carefully crafted social coalition when combined with a powerful national narrative.

Conclusion: The Calm Before the Verdict

As Bihar awaits the final count, the air is thick with anticipation. The record 67.14% turnout is a testament to the vitality of Indian democracy, a loud and clear statement from the people of Bihar that they are the ultimate arbiters of their destiny. The exit polls, in turn, have interpreted this statement as a vote for continuity, for the NDA’s brand of politics.

However, Indian elections have sprung surprises before. The silent voter has often defied the predictions of pundits and polls. Whether the exit polls have accurately captured the public sentiment or whether there is a “silent undercurrent” favouring the opposition will be revealed on the day of the results. But one thing is certain: Bihar, with its historic participation, has not just voted; it has roared. And the echo of that roar will resonate far beyond the banks of the Ganga, shaping the political landscape of the nation for the next five years.